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Copa do Brasil U20
São Paulo U20 vs Ceará U20
Thu 05 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 1 won · 0 lostCe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 88.4%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=16)
• type ledger 80% (n=1993)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.5%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 33/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1993, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.4%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (88.4%)
@ 05 Nov 17:34
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.5%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
11.6%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:34
scoring fit λ 2.13 / μ 0.83
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.6%
|
8.59x | – | risky | lost |
| Draw |
22.9%
|
4.37x | – | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
65.5%
|
1.53x | – | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — São Paulo U20 2W / 0D / 0L
· momentum São Paulo U… 1.67 ppg vs Ceará U20 1.17 ppg
São Paulo U20 · last 6
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
4-1
W
01 Nov · Paulista - U20
2-0
L
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
1-2
W
26 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-3
L
21 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
7-0
W
17 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-2
D
Ceará U20 · last 6
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
4-1
L
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
1-2
L
21 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
2-1
L
15 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-1
W
07 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
1-0
W
05 Sep · Cearense U20
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
São Paulo U20 4-1 Ceará U20
29 Oct 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
Ceará U20 1-2 São Paulo U20