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Copa do Brasil U20
Paysandu PA U20 vs Palmeiras U20
Thu 05 Nov 22:30 0 minutes final 1–3 · 1 won · 0 lostPa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 81.2%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=16)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 50.5%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 8/39 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
81.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (81.2%)
@ 05 Nov 17:34
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
5.2%
Draw
18.8%
Away win
76.0%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:34
scoring fit λ 0.61 / μ 2.46
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
76.0%
|
1.32x | – | solid | won |
| Draw |
18.8%
|
5.31x | – | risky | lost |
| Home win |
5.2%
|
19.25x | – | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Paysandu PA U… 0W / 0D / 2L
· momentum Paysandu PA… 1.67 ppg vs Palmeiras U… 2.5 ppg
Paysandu PA U20 · last 6
08 Nov · Paraense U20
1-1
D
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
1-3
L
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-0
L
21 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
2-0
W
14 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
0-3
W
07 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
6-0
W
Palmeiras U20 · last 6
09 Nov · Paulista - U20
1-2
L
05 Nov · Copa do Brasil U20
1-3
W
01 Nov · Paulista - U20
2-0
W
29 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
3-0
W
26 Oct · Paulista - U20
2-3
W
22 Oct · Copa do Brasil U20
2-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
Paysandu PA U20 1-3 Palmeiras U20
29 Oct 26 · Copa do Brasil U20
Palmeiras U20 3-0 Paysandu PA U20