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Segunda División
Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Petare
Sat 07 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 88.1%
why
• league OK (81.8%, n=11)
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
league track
ok · 81.8% of 11 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 52.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 29/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.3% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (88.1%)
@ 07 Nov 18:02
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.9%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
11.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:02
scoring fit λ 2.04 / μ 0.77
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 246 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
11.9%
|
8.43x | 50.0% n=246 | risky | won |
| Draw |
22.2%
|
4.5x | 50.0% n=246 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
65.9%
|
1.52x | 50.0% n=246 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Fundación Lar… 1W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Fundación L… 1.17 ppg vs Petare 1.33 ppg
Fundación Lara Deportiva · last 6
07 Nov · Segunda División
0-1
L
01 Nov · Segunda División
0-2
W
25 Oct · Segunda División
0-4
W
18 Oct · Segunda División
0-1
L
14 Oct · Copa Venezuela
1-1
D
10 Oct · Segunda División
3-2
L
Petare · last 6
07 Nov · Segunda División
0-1
W
01 Nov · Segunda División
0-2
L
25 Oct · Segunda División
0-0
D
18 Oct · Segunda División
1-0
L
11 Oct · Segunda División
4-2
W
07 Oct · Copa Venezuela
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Segunda División
Fundación Lara … 0-1 Petare
01 Nov 26 · Segunda División
Petare 0-2 Fundación Lara …
Tickets including this match