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Primera B
Quindio vs Tigres FC
Sun 08 Nov 23:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 93.2%
why
• league PROVEN (82.9%, n=35)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.9% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 23/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.8% (n=1085)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.2%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
38.5%
Draw
32.7%
Away win
28.8%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 1.17 / μ 0.98
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 293 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
28.8%
|
3.47x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| Draw |
32.7%
|
3.06x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| top Home win |
38.5%
|
2.6x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 15 meetings — Quindio 11W / 1D / 3L
· momentum Quindio 2.17 ppg vs Tigres FC 1.17 ppg
Quindio · last 6
04 Nov · Primera B
2-0
L
03 Nov · Primera B
2-3
W
29 Oct · Primera B
2-0
W
24 Oct · Primera B
2-0
W
20 Oct · Primera B
0-1
W
16 Oct · Primera B
1-1
D
Tigres FC · last 6
04 Nov · Primera B
2-0
W
01 Nov · Primera B
0-0
D
29 Oct · Primera B
0-0
D
24 Oct · Primera B
2-0
L
20 Oct · Primera B
0-0
D
17 Oct · Primera B
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
04 Nov 26 · Primera B
Tigres FC 2-0 Quindio
24 Oct 26 · Primera B
Quindio 2-0 Tigres FC
10 May 26 · Primera B
Tigres FC 0-1 Quindio
05 May 26 · Primera B
Quindio 1-0 Tigres FC
18 Apr 26 · Primera B
Tigres FC 0-1 Quindio
Tickets including this match