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Primera B
Real Soacha vs Real Cartagena
Sun 08 Nov 23:00 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.7%
why
• league PROVEN (82.9%, n=35)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.9% of 35 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 21/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.7%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.1%
Draw
33.7%
Away win
29.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 1.37 / μ 1.20
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 293 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.1%
|
3.43x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| Draw |
33.7%
|
2.97x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
| top Home win |
37.1%
|
2.69x | 43.0% n=293 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Real Soacha 2W / 3D / 3L
· momentum Real Soacha 1.0 ppg vs Real Cartag… 1.17 ppg
Real Soacha · last 6
01 Nov · Primera B
0-0
D
29 Oct · Primera B
2-0
L
24 Oct · Primera B
1-0
W
20 Oct · Primera B
0-0
D
15 Oct · Primera B
0-0
D
09 Oct · Primera B
0-1
L
Real Cartagena · last 6
03 Nov · Primera B
2-3
L
29 Oct · Primera B
0-0
D
24 Oct · Primera B
1-1
D
20 Oct · Primera B
3-0
W
16 Oct · Primera B
1-1
D
08 Oct · Primera B
2-2
D
Head-to-head last 5
02 Aug 26 · Primera B
Real Soacha 1-1 Real Cartagena
31 Jan 26 · Primera B
Real Cartagena 1-0 Real Soacha
17 Nov 25 · Primera B
Real Soacha 1-2 Real Cartagena
13 Nov 25 · Primera B
Real Cartagena 0-0 Real Soacha
05 Aug 25 · Primera B
Real Cartagena 0-0 Real Soacha