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UEFA Women’s Champions League
Malmö FF Women vs Ajax Women
Tomorrow 19:00 1 day, 15 hoursAj
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 88.8%
why
• league OK (75.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
ok · 75.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 40.9%)
draws 13.3% of matches
team history 26/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.9% (n=303)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
88.8%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (88.8%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
83.2%
Draw
11.2%
Away win
5.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 2.72 / μ 0.55
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.6%
|
17.85x | – | risky |
| Draw |
11.2%
|
8.95x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
83.2%
|
1.2x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Malmö FF Women 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Malmö FF Wo… 2.17 ppg vs Ajax Women 1.5 ppg
Malmö FF Women · last 6
07 Nov · Damallsvenskan
1-0
L
02 Nov · Damallsvenskan
1-1
D
28 Oct · UEFA Women’s Champion…
1-2
W
24 Oct · Damallsvenskan
1-2
W
17 Oct · Damallsvenskan
3-2
W
04 Oct · Damallsvenskan
1-0
W
Ajax Women · last 6
01 Nov · Eredivisie Women
2-0
W
28 Oct · UEFA Women’s Champion…
1-2
L
18 Oct · Eredivisie Women
1-4
L
04 Oct · Eredivisie Women
1-4
W
30 Sep · UEFA Women’s Champion…
1-0
L
26 Sep · Eredivisie Women
7-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
28 Oct 26 · UEFA Women’s Champion…
Ajax Women 1-2 Malmö FF Women