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Sergipano - 2
Maruinense vs Independente Simão Dias
Wed 11 Nov 20:00 2 days, 15 hoursIn
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 93.6%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=18)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 18 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.7%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 3/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.6%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (93.6%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
91.7%
Draw
6.4%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 2.95 / μ 0.23
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
51.01x | – | risky |
| Draw |
6.4%
|
15.71x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
91.7%
|
1.09x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Maruinense 2.0 ppg vs Independent… 0.5 ppg
Maruinense · last 6
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-1
W
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2
1-0
L
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2
2-1
W
Independente Simão Dias · last 6
08 Nov · Sergipano - 2
1-6
L
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-0
D
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2
5-0
L
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match