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Sergipano - 2

Estanciano vs Barra SE

Today 20:00 4 hours, 12 minutes
Ba
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 75.3%
why
• league OK (68.2%, n=22)
• type ledger 79% (n=2290)
league track
ok · 68.2% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 47.3%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2290, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=948)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (75.3%)
@ 11 Nov 10:03
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
45.7%
Draw
24.7%
Away win
29.5%
calibrated 11 Nov 10:03
scoring fit λ 1.48 / μ 1.13
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
29.5%
3.39x – risky
Draw
24.7%
4.04x – risky
top Home win
45.7%
2.19x – risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum Estanciano 1.75 ppg vs Barra SE 0.5 ppg
Estanciano · last 6
08 Nov · Sergipano - 2 2-3 W
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2 0-2 L
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2 1-0 W
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2 1-1 D
Barra SE · last 6
08 Nov · Sergipano - 2 0-3 L
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2 0-0 D
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2 5-0 L
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.