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Sergipano - 2
Frei Paulistano vs Socorro Sport
Tomorrow 20:00 1 day, 13 hoursSo
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 94.6%
why
• league OK (68.4%, n=19)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 68.4% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 46.0%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
94.6%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (94.6%)
@ 10 Nov 06:09
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
92.7%
Draw
5.4%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:09
scoring fit λ 3.77 / μ 0.49
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.55x | – | risky |
| Draw |
5.4%
|
18.62x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
92.6%
|
1.08x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Frei Paulis… 2.5 ppg vs Socorro Spo… 1.0 ppg
Frei Paulistano · last 6
08 Nov · Sergipano - 2
1-6
W
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-2
W
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2
5-0
W
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2
2-1
L
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-4
W
26 Oct · Sergipano - 2
0-1
W
Socorro Sport · last 6
08 Nov · Sergipano - 2
2-3
L
04 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-1
L
01 Nov · Sergipano - 2
5-0
W
29 Oct · Sergipano - 2
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.
Tickets including this match