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Sergipano - 2
América de Pedrinhas vs Flamengo SE
Tomorrow 20:00 1 day, 15 hoursFl
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 92.3%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=18)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 18 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.7%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.3%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (92.3%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
2.0%
Draw
7.7%
Away win
90.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 0.46 / μ 3.39
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
90.3%
|
1.11x | – | solid |
| Draw |
7.7%
|
13.02x | – | risky |
| Home win |
2.0%
|
50.0x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum América de … 0.17 ppg vs Flamengo SE 1.0 ppg
América de Pedrinhas · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-0
L
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-3
L
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
8-0
L
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-6
L
02 Nov · Sergipano - 2
4-0
L
25 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-1
D
Flamengo SE · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-1
L
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
1-2
L
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
2-3
W
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.