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Sergipano - 2
Carmópolis vs Olímpico SE
Tomorrow 20:00 1 day, 15 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 93.2%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=18)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 18 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.7%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
93.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (93.2%)
@ 09 Nov 02:54
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
91.2%
Draw
6.8%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 3.09 / μ 0.30
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.15x | – | risky |
| Draw |
6.8%
|
14.79x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
91.2%
|
1.1x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Carmópolis 2.0 ppg vs Olímpico SE 2.17 ppg
Carmópolis · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-0
D
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-0
W
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
8-0
W
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-1
D
Olímpico SE · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-0
W
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
1-2
W
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
3-3
D
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-2
L
25 Oct · Sergipano - 2
4-1
W
18 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-7
W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.