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Sergipano - 2
Socorrense vs Carmópolis
Sat 07 Nov 14:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settledCa
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 83.6%
why
• league OK (68.4%, n=19)
• type ledger 75% (n=2265)
league track
ok · 68.4% of 19 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 46.0%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2265, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
83.6%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
7.1%
Draw
16.4%
Away win
76.4%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:07
scoring fit λ 0.85 / μ 2.80
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
76.4%
|
1.31x | – | solid | lost |
| Draw |
16.4%
|
6.08x | – | risky | won |
| Home win |
7.1%
|
14.03x | – | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Socorrense 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Socorrense 1.75 ppg vs Carmópolis 2.0 ppg
Socorrense · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-0
D
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-3
W
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
2-3
L
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-2
W
Carmópolis · last 6
07 Nov · Sergipano - 2
0-0
D
03 Nov · Sergipano - 2
3-0
W
31 Oct · Sergipano - 2
8-0
W
28 Oct · Sergipano - 2
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Sergipano - 2
Socorrense 0-0 Carmópolis