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Division di Honor

River Plate vs Nacional

Tomorrow 02:30 22 hours, 24 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 94.2%
why
• league NEW (71.4%, n=7)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 71.4% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 35.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 5/6 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.8% (n=242)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=470)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.2%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
26.0%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
55.9%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.88 / μ 2.72
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 140 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
55.9%
1.79x 58.6% n=140 lean
Draw
18.1%
5.53x 58.6% n=140 risky
Home win
26.0%
3.85x 58.6% n=140 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — River Plate 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum River Plate 1.83 ppg vs Nacional 2.17 ppg
River Plate · last 6
31 Oct · Division di Honor 4-1 L
24 Oct · Division di Honor 1-1 D
01 Jun · Division di Honor 2-4 W
25 May · Division di Honor 1-5 W
18 May · Division di Honor 2-2 D
11 May · Division di Honor 0-5 W
Nacional · last 6
02 Nov · Division di Honor 1-1 D
27 Oct · Division di Honor 2-3 L
13 Jun · Division di Honor 2-1 W
01 Jun · Division di Honor 1-3 W
28 May · Division di Honor 0-2 W
18 May · Division di Honor 4-2 W
Head-to-head last 5
23 Nov 25 · Division di Honor Nacional 1-2 River Plate