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Division di Honor

Sporting vs Bubali

Today 02:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 91.6%
why
• league NEW (71.4%, n=7)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 71.4% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 35.9%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 8/5 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.8% (n=242)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.6%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
41.2%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
35.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:54
scoring fit λ 1.96 / μ 1.81
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 140 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
35.0%
2.85x 58.6% n=140 risky lost
Draw
23.7%
4.21x 58.6% n=140 risky lost
top Home win
41.2%
2.42x 58.6% n=140 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Sporting 2W / 1D / 1L · momentum Sporting 2.0 ppg vs Bubali 0.83 ppg
Sporting · last 6
09 Nov · Division di Honor 2-0 W
01 Nov · Division di Honor 0-1 W
26 Oct · Division di Honor 1-2 W
16 Jun · Division di Honor 1-1 D
10 Jun · Division di Honor 0-0 D
31 May · Division di Honor 2-2 D
Bubali · last 6
09 Nov · Division di Honor 2-0 L
03 Nov · Division di Honor 2-2 D
25 Oct · Division di Honor 0-1 W
23 May · Division di Honor 1-1 D
17 May · Division di Honor 3-0 L
10 May · Division di Honor 0-4 L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Division di Honor Sporting 2-0 Bubali
26 Apr 26 · Division di Honor Sporting 2-2 Bubali
09 Mar 26 · Division di Honor Bubali 2-0 Sporting
30 Nov 25 · Division di Honor Sporting 2-0 Bubali