Ku
HOME
Elite Two

Kumba vs Tonnerre

Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 90.7%
why
• league NEW (57.1%, n=7)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 57.1% of 7 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 25.0%)
draws 38.3% of matches
team history 9/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.7%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
26.4%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
44.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:28
scoring fit λ 1.09 / μ 1.47
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 157 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
44.5%
2.25x 46.5% n=157 risky lost
Draw
29.1%
3.44x 46.5% n=157 risky lost
Home win
26.4%
3.79x 46.5% n=157 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Kumba 2W / 0D / 1L · momentum Kumba 0.67 ppg vs Tonnerre 1.0 ppg
Kumba · last 6
08 Nov · Elite Two 2-1 W
01 Nov · Elite Two 1-2 L
25 Oct · Elite Two 2-0 L
20 Jun · Elite Two 6-1 L
17 Jun · Elite Two 1-1 D
15 Jun · Elite Two 2-5 L
Tonnerre · last 6
08 Nov · Elite Two 2-1 L
01 Nov · Elite Two 3-0 L
25 Oct · Elite Two 2-0 W
21 Jun · Elite Two 2-2 D
18 Jun · Elite Two 1-1 D
16 Jun · Elite Two 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Elite Two Kumba 2-1 Tonnerre
30 Apr 26 · Elite Two Tonnerre 1-0 Kumba
25 Feb 26 · Elite Two Kumba 2-1 Tonnerre