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Copa de la División Profesional
Bolívar vs Real Potosí
Thu 05 Nov 23:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 86.0%
why
• league PROVEN (100.0%, n=8)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
league track
proven · 100.0% of 8 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.6%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 35/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (86.0%)
@ 06 Nov 00:29
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.6%
Draw
21.3%
Away win
14.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 00:29
scoring fit λ 2.20 / μ 0.96
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 07 Nov · 174 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
14.0%
|
7.13x | 52.3% n=174 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.3%
|
4.68x | 52.3% n=174 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
64.6%
|
1.55x | 52.3% n=174 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Bolívar 7W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Bolívar 2.5 ppg vs Real Potosí 1.33 ppg
Bolívar · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División
1-0
W
05 Nov · Copa de la División P…
1-0
W
01 Nov · Primera División
1-2
W
27 Oct · Primera División
2-1
W
22 Oct · Copa de la División P…
3-1
L
18 Oct · Primera División
0-1
W
Real Potosí · last 6
08 Nov · Primera División
1-1
D
05 Nov · Copa de la División P…
1-0
L
31 Oct · Primera División
1-1
D
24 Oct · Primera División
2-1
L
22 Oct · Copa de la División P…
3-1
W
16 Oct · Primera División
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Copa de la División P…
Bolívar 1-0 Real Potosí
22 Oct 26 · Copa de la División P…
Real Potosí 3-1 Bolívar
26 Jul 26 · Primera División
Bolívar 2-1 Real Potosí
20 Feb 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Real Potosí 1-3 Bolívar
14 Feb 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Bolívar 3-1 Real Potosí
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