HOME
Ligue 1
Don Bosco vs Saint Eloi Lupopo
Fri 13 Nov 15:00 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 91.5%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 13/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.5%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
31.5%
Draw
32.4%
Away win
36.1%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 1.11 / μ 1.20
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
36.1%
|
2.77x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Draw |
32.4%
|
3.08x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Home win |
31.5%
|
3.18x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Don Bosco 2W / 3D / 8L
· momentum Don Bosco 1.0 ppg vs Saint Eloi … 1.67 ppg
Don Bosco · last 6
30 Oct · Ligue 1
1-0
W
26 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
20 Jun · Ligue 1
1-2
L
17 Jun · Ligue 1
0-3
L
14 Jun · Ligue 1
1-1
D
Saint Eloi Lupopo · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
26 Oct · Ligue 1
0-2
W
20 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Jun · Ligue 1
1-0
W
17 Jun · Ligue 1
1-1
D
14 Jun · Ligue 1
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
11 Jun 26 · Ligue 1
Saint Eloi Lupo… 0-0 Don Bosco
19 May 26 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 1-0 Saint Eloi Lupo…
15 Apr 26 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 3-0 Saint Eloi Lupo…
21 Dec 25 · Ligue 1
Saint Eloi Lupo… 2-0 Don Bosco
21 Jun 25 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 1-1 Saint Eloi Lupo…