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Ligue 1
Simba vs TP Mazembe
Fri 13 Nov 15:00 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 77.9%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 75% (n=661)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 14/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 74.9% hit (n=661, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.0% (n=129)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.9%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Draw or Away
solid (77.9%)
@ 11 Nov 23:59
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
22.1%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
48.8%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:59
scoring fit λ 0.86 / μ 1.41
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
48.8%
|
2.05x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Draw |
29.1%
|
3.44x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Home win |
22.1%
|
4.53x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 9 meetings — Simba 1W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Simba 1.5 ppg vs TP Mazembe 1.83 ppg
Simba · last 6
05 Nov · Ligue 1
1-0
L
30 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
27 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-1
W
17 Jun · Ligue 1
0-0
D
TP Mazembe · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
25 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-0
L
17 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-1
D
12 Sep · CAF Champions League
3-1
W
06 Sep · CAF Champions League
0-1
W
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
03 Jun 26 · Ligue 1
TP Mazembe 4-1 Simba
18 May 26 · Ligue 1
Simba 0-1 TP Mazembe
22 Feb 26 · Ligue 1
TP Mazembe 3-0 Simba
30 Mar 25 · Ligue 1
Simba 1-0 TP Mazembe
22 Jan 25 · Ligue 1
TP Mazembe 1-0 Simba