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Ligue 1
Anges Verts vs Étoile du Congo Brazzaville
Tomorrow 14:00 1 day, 11 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Under 3.5 goals · 87.9%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 43.3% of matches
team history 4/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.6% (n=97)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.9%
Under 3.5 goals
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.4%
Draw
33.2%
Away win
32.4%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:53
scoring fit λ 0.96 / μ 0.92
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
32.4%
|
3.08x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Draw |
33.2%
|
3.01x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| top Home win |
34.4%
|
2.91x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Anges Verts 2.17 ppg vs Étoile du C… 1.83 ppg
Anges Verts · last 6
04 Nov · Ligue 1
0-1
W
31 Oct · Ligue 1
0-1
L
26 Oct · Ligue 1
0-1
W
21 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
18 Apr · Ligue 1
0-0
D
11 Apr · Ligue 1
1-0
W
Étoile du Congo Brazzaville · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
30 Oct · Ligue 1
2-1
L
20 Oct · Ligue 1
0-1
W
23 Mar · Ligue 1
3-0
W
14 Mar · Ligue 1
4-0
W
07 Mar · Ligue 1
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.