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Ligue 1
Céleste vs Maniema Union
Tomorrow 16:00 1 day, 13 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 91.6%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 43.3% of matches
team history 15/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.6%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
32.1%
Draw
32.1%
Away win
35.8%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:53
scoring fit λ 1.11 / μ 1.19
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
35.8%
|
2.79x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Draw |
32.1%
|
3.11x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Home win |
32.1%
|
3.12x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Céleste 0W / 2D / 6L
· momentum Céleste 1.83 ppg vs Maniema Uni… 2.17 ppg
Céleste · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1
0-2
W
04 Nov · Ligue 1
0-1
W
30 Oct · Ligue 1
2-1
W
25 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-0
L
Maniema Union · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
2-1
W
29 Oct · Ligue 1
1-2
W
24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup
4-1
W
17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup
1-4
W
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-1
L
17 Jun · Ligue 1
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
14 Jun 26 · Ligue 1
Céleste 1-3 Maniema Union
05 May 26 · Ligue 1
Maniema Union 1-0 Céleste
06 Apr 26 · Ligue 1
Céleste 0-0 Maniema Union
16 Dec 25 · Ligue 1
Maniema Union 1-0 Céleste
23 Mar 25 · Ligue 1
Maniema Union 0-0 Céleste