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Ligue 1

Lubumbashi Sport vs Malole

Tomorrow 15:00 1 day, 4 hours
Ma
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 43.3% of matches
team history 3/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.4%
Draw
34.3%
Away win
25.3%
calibrated 10 Nov 09:54
scoring fit λ 1.22 / μ 0.92
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
25.3%
3.96x 43.8% n=448 risky
Draw
34.3%
2.91x 43.8% n=448 risky
top Home win
40.4%
2.48x 43.8% n=448 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — Lubumbashi Sp… 2W / 2D / 0L · momentum Lubumbashi … 1.17 ppg vs Malole 1.5 ppg
Lubumbashi Sport · last 6
05 Nov · Ligue 1 0-1 W
30 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 W
26 Oct · Ligue 1 2-1 L
26 Mar · Ligue 1 0-0 D
22 Mar · Ligue 1 4-2 L
13 Mar · Ligue 1 0-1 L
Malole · last 6
04 Nov · Ligue 1 1-1 D
30 Oct · Ligue 1 0-1 W
27 Oct · Ligue 1 0-0 D
20 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
22 Apr · Ligue 1 1-2 L
15 Apr · Ligue 1 3-0 W
Head-to-head last 5
26 Jan 26 · Ligue 1 Lubumbashi Sport 1-0 Malole
04 Dec 25 · Ligue 1 Malole 0-0 Lubumbashi Sport
27 Feb 25 · Ligue 1 Lubumbashi Sport 1-0 Malole
26 Oct 24 · Ligue 1 Malole 2-2 Lubumbashi Sport