HOME
Ligue 1
TP Mazembe vs Don Bosco
Tomorrow 15:00 1 day, 10 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 92.0%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 45.0% of matches
team history 16/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.7% (n=162)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (92.0%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.0%
Draw
31.1%
Away win
8.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.78 / μ 0.62
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.0%
|
12.57x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| Draw |
31.1%
|
3.22x | 43.8% n=448 | risky |
| top Home win |
61.0%
|
1.64x | 43.8% n=448 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — TP Mazembe 12W / 1D / 0L
· momentum TP Mazembe 1.83 ppg vs Don Bosco 1.0 ppg
TP Mazembe · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
25 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-0
L
17 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-1
D
12 Sep · CAF Champions League
3-1
W
06 Sep · CAF Champions League
0-1
W
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-0
W
Don Bosco · last 6
30 Oct · Ligue 1
1-0
W
26 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
1-1
D
20 Jun · Ligue 1
1-2
L
17 Jun · Ligue 1
0-3
L
14 Jun · Ligue 1
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
17 Jun 26 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 0-3 TP Mazembe
15 May 26 · Ligue 1
TP Mazembe 4-2 Don Bosco
12 Apr 26 · Ligue 1
TP Mazembe 1-0 Don Bosco
19 Nov 25 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 0-3 TP Mazembe
08 Jun 25 · Ligue 1
Don Bosco 0-4 TP Mazembe