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Ligue 1
Étoile du Congo Brazzaville vs Dauphins Noirs
Sat 07 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.1%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 43.3% of matches
team history 3/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
52.0%
Draw
35.1%
Away win
12.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:41
scoring fit λ 1.17 / μ 0.46
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.9%
|
7.74x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
35.1%
|
2.85x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | won |
| top Home win |
52.0%
|
1.92x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Étoile du Con… 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Étoile du C… 1.83 ppg vs Dauphins No… 0.83 ppg
Étoile du Congo Brazzaville · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
30 Oct · Ligue 1
2-1
L
20 Oct · Ligue 1
0-1
W
23 Mar · Ligue 1
3-0
W
14 Mar · Ligue 1
4-0
W
07 Mar · Ligue 1
0-0
D
Dauphins Noirs · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
0-0
D
31 Oct · Ligue 1
0-1
L
25 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
09 Apr · Ligue 1
0-0
D
18 Mar · Ligue 1
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Ligue 1
Étoile du Congo… 0-0 Dauphins Noirs