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Ligue 1
Butras vs Simba
Thu 05 Nov 13:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Under 3.5 goals · 85.9%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 43.3% of matches
team history 3/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.6% (n=97)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.9%
Under 3.5 goals
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
solid (85.9%)
@ 05 Nov 10:47
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.6%
Draw
35.3%
Away win
27.1%
calibrated 05 Nov 10:47
scoring fit λ 1.09 / μ 0.89
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.1%
|
3.69x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
35.3%
|
2.83x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
37.6%
|
2.66x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Butras 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Butras 1.0 ppg vs Simba 1.5 ppg
Butras · last 6
05 Nov · Ligue 1
1-0
W
30 Oct · Ligue 1
1-0
L
26 Oct · Ligue 1
0-2
L
Simba · last 6
05 Nov · Ligue 1
1-0
L
30 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
27 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
20 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
20 Jun · Ligue 1
2-1
W
17 Jun · Ligue 1
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Ligue 1
Butras 1-0 Simba