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Ýokary Liga
Arkadag vs Altyn Asyr
Tomorrow 16:00 1 day, 8 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.2%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=3)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 3 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 19/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.2%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
76.8%
Draw
13.7%
Away win
9.5%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:08
scoring fit λ 2.68 / μ 0.83
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 110 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
9.5%
|
10.58x | 71.8% n=110 | risky |
| Draw |
13.7%
|
7.29x | 71.8% n=110 | risky |
| top Home win |
76.8%
|
1.3x | 71.8% n=110 | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Arkadag 11W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Arkadag 2.17 ppg vs Altyn Asyr 2.33 ppg
Arkadag · last 6
08 Nov · Ýokary Liga
3-0
W
04 Nov · AFC Cup
1-0
W
28 Oct · AFC Cup
0-0
D
14 Oct · AFC Cup
2-1
L
20 Sep · Ýokary Liga
0-1
W
15 Sep · AFC Cup
1-0
W
Altyn Asyr · last 6
07 Nov · Ýokary Liga
0-0
D
01 Nov · Ýokary Liga
0-0
D
11 Oct · Ýokary Liga
2-4
W
19 Sep · Ýokary Liga
2-4
W
12 Sep · Ýokary Liga
2-0
W
05 Sep · Ýokary Liga
5-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
22 Aug 26 · Ýokary Liga
Altyn Asyr 2-5 Arkadag
18 Apr 26 · Ýokary Liga
Altyn Asyr 0-1 Arkadag
07 Dec 25 · Ýokary Liga
Arkadag 2-0 Altyn Asyr
15 Aug 25 · Ýokary Liga
Altyn Asyr 2-5 Arkadag
27 Jun 25 · Ýokary Liga
Arkadag 7-3 Altyn Asyr