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Ýokary Liga
Merw vs Ahal
Tomorrow 16:00 1 day, 8 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league NEW (0.0%, n=3)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 0.0% of 3 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 0.0%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 17/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4539)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
6.5%
Draw
7.6%
Away win
85.9%
calibrated 10 Nov 06:08
scoring fit λ 0.54 / μ 2.83
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 110 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
85.9%
|
1.16x | 71.8% n=110 | solid |
| Draw |
7.6%
|
13.2x | 71.8% n=110 | risky |
| Home win |
6.5%
|
15.41x | 71.8% n=110 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Merw 0W / 1D / 10L
· momentum Merw 0.83 ppg vs Ahal 1.5 ppg
Merw · last 6
07 Nov · Ýokary Liga
0-0
D
01 Nov · Ýokary Liga
1-0
L
17 Oct · Ýokary Liga
3-0
L
19 Sep · Ýokary Liga
0-2
W
12 Sep · Ýokary Liga
2-2
D
05 Sep · Ýokary Liga
5-0
L
Ahal · last 6
07 Nov · Ýokary Liga
0-0
D
01 Nov · Ýokary Liga
0-0
D
23 Oct · AFC Challenge League
2-1
W
20 Oct · AFC Challenge League
5-1
L
17 Oct · AFC Challenge League
2-2
D
19 Sep · Ýokary Liga
3-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
22 Aug 26 · Ýokary Liga
Ahal 4-0 Merw
24 May 26 · Ýokary Liga
Merw 1-3 Ahal
11 Dec 25 · Ýokary Liga
Merw 0-2 Ahal
04 Dec 25 · Ýokary Liga
Ahal 4-0 Merw
17 Sep 25 · Ýokary Liga
Ahal 0-0 Merw