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Pro League U23

United Fc U23 vs Al Nasr U23

Today 14:55 11 hours, 31 minutes
Al
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.0%
why
• league WATCH (54.5%, n=11)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
watch · 54.5% of 11 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 28.0%)
draws 30.0% of matches
team history 7/8 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3022)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.7%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
39.0%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 1.83 / μ 1.87
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 84 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
top Away win
39.0%
2.57x 35.7% n=84 risky
Draw
23.4%
4.28x 35.7% n=84 risky
Home win
37.7%
2.65x 35.7% n=84 risky
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record · momentum United Fc U… 1.5 ppg vs Al Nasr U23 2.33 ppg
United Fc U23 · last 6
31 Oct · Pro League U23 0-4 W
17 Oct · Pro League U23 1-5 L
11 Sep · Pro League U23 2-1 L
06 Sep · Pro League U23 0-2 W
29 Aug · Pro League U23 3-1 W
24 Aug · Pro League U23 4-2 L
Al Nasr U23 · last 6
02 Nov · Pro League U23 3-3 D
18 Oct · Pro League U23 2-2 D
11 Sep · Pro League U23 3-2 W
07 Sep · Pro League U23 1-0 W
30 Aug · Pro League U23 1-3 W
22 Aug · Pro League U23 3-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.