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Kings Cup
Furia vs Dibrados Fc
Tomorrow 02:00 20 hours, 38 minutesDi
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 4.5 goals · 89.2%
why
• league NEW (80.0%, n=5)
• type ledger thin (n=6)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 80.0% of 5 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 37.6%)
draws 24.4% of matches
team history 3/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O4.5: 16.7% hit (n=6, 90d ledger)
measured band: 28.4% (n=1790)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.2%
Over 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Safer
69.7%
Draw or Away
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
30.3%
Draw
14.1%
Away win
55.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 3.47 / μ 4.40
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
55.6%
|
1.8x | – | lean |
| Draw |
14.1%
|
7.09x | – | risky |
| Home win |
30.3%
|
3.3x | – | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum Furia 1.67 ppg vs Dibrados Fc 1.33 ppg
Furia · last 6
02 Nov · Kings Cup
6-5
L
27 Oct · Kings Cup
6-4
W
20 Oct · Kings Cup
3-3
D
15 Nov · Kings Cup
6-7
W
11 Nov · Kings Cup
4-8
L
04 Nov · Kings Cup
6-4
W
Dibrados Fc · last 6
03 Nov · Kings Cup
2-4
W
26 Oct · Kings Cup
2-4
L
20 Oct · Kings Cup
6-6
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.