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Kings Cup

Nyvelados vs Dendele

Today 22:00 17 hours
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 4.5 goals · 93.7%
why
• league NEW (80.0%, n=5)
• type ledger thin (n=6)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new · 80.0% of 5 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 37.6%)
draws 24.4% of matches
team history 3/3 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O4.5: 16.7% hit (n=6, 90d ledger)
measured band: 28.4% (n=1790)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.7%
Over 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Safer
66.4%
Home or Draw
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
53.0%
Draw
13.5%
Away win
33.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 4.78 / μ 4.03
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
33.6%
2.98x – risky
Draw
13.5%
7.43x – risky
top Home win
53.0%
1.89x – risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Nyvelados 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Nyvelados 0.67 ppg vs Dendele 1.67 ppg
Nyvelados · last 6
02 Nov · Kings Cup 7-4 L
26 Oct · Kings Cup 2-9 L
19 Oct · Kings Cup 10-3 L
11 Nov · Kings Cup 4-8 W
04 Nov · Kings Cup 5-4 L
28 Oct · Kings Cup 3-3 D
Dendele · last 6
02 Nov · Kings Cup 2-8 W
26 Oct · Kings Cup 2-4 L
20 Oct · Kings Cup 4-3 W
11 Nov · Kings Cup 5-6 L
04 Nov · Kings Cup 4-2 W
28 Oct · Kings Cup 4-4 D
Head-to-head last 5
18 Oct 25 · Kings Cup Nyvelados 4-4 Dendele