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Friendlies Clubs
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna
Fri 13 Nov 13:00 1 day, 12 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 95.0%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 24/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 94.9% (n=1050)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 76.6% hit (n=3052)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
95.0%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.0%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
30.2%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:54
scoring fit λ 1.72 / μ 1.35
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 3887 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
30.2%
|
3.31x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| Draw |
23.8%
|
4.21x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.0%
|
2.17x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Vasteras SK FK 3W / 3D / 4L
· momentum Vasteras SK… 1.67 ppg vs IF Brommapo… 1.33 ppg
Vasteras SK FK · last 6
07 Nov · Allsvenskan
0-0
D
01 Nov · Allsvenskan
1-0
W
28 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-3
W
23 Oct · Allsvenskan
1-2
L
18 Oct · Allsvenskan
1-0
W
09 Oct · Allsvenskan
1-0
L
IF Brommapojkarna · last 6
08 Nov · Allsvenskan
0-0
D
01 Nov · Allsvenskan
1-0
L
28 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-0
D
24 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-3
W
16 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-2
L
10 Oct · Allsvenskan
5-6
W
Head-to-head last 5
01 Nov 26 · Allsvenskan
Vasteras SK FK 1-0 IF Brommapojkar…
26 Apr 26 · Allsvenskan
IF Brommapojkar… 1-2 Vasteras SK FK
22 Mar 26 · Friendlies Clubs
IF Brommapojkar… 2-2 Vasteras SK FK
20 Nov 25 · Friendlies Clubs
Vasteras SK FK 2-5 IF Brommapojkar…
30 Sep 24 · Allsvenskan
IF Brommapojkar… 2-1 Vasteras SK FK