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Friendlies Clubs
BK Häcken vs Fredrikstad
Tomorrow 17:00 1 day, 14 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 89.2%
why
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 24/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 89.1% (n=1726)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
89.2%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.4%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
32.4%
calibrated 10 Nov 23:52
scoring fit λ 1.75 / μ 1.47
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 3887 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
32.4%
|
3.09x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| Draw |
23.2%
|
4.3x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
| top Home win |
44.4%
|
2.25x | 44.7% n=3887 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
no H2H record
· momentum BK Häcken 2.17 ppg vs Fredrikstad 0.83 ppg
BK Häcken · last 6
08 Nov · Allsvenskan
3-2
L
01 Nov · Allsvenskan
1-0
W
28 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-0
D
24 Oct · Allsvenskan
4-0
W
18 Oct · Allsvenskan
0-1
W
11 Oct · Allsvenskan
3-0
W
Fredrikstad · last 6
08 Nov · Eliteserien
2-2
D
31 Oct · Eliteserien
0-3
L
28 Oct · NM Cupen
2-5
W
25 Oct · Eliteserien
5-1
L
17 Oct · Eliteserien
3-2
L
11 Oct · Eliteserien
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
First meeting on record.