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Elite One
Stade Renard vs Colombe
Sun 08 Nov 16:30 0 minutes final 1–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 94.5%
why
• league PROVEN (81.2%, n=16)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 81.2% of 16 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.0%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 12/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
12.0%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
68.7%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:42
scoring fit λ 0.68 / μ 2.00
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 194 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
68.7%
|
1.46x | 51.0% n=194 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
19.3%
|
5.18x | 51.0% n=194 | risky | won |
| Home win |
12.0%
|
8.35x | 51.0% n=194 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Stade Renard 2W / 6D / 2L
· momentum Stade Renard 1.83 ppg vs Colombe 2.0 ppg
Stade Renard · last 6
08 Nov · Elite One
1-1
D
01 Nov · Elite One
4-0
L
25 Oct · Elite One
2-1
W
17 Oct · Elite One
2-2
D
27 Jun · Elite One
1-2
W
21 Jun · Elite One
1-0
W
Colombe · last 6
08 Nov · Elite One
1-1
D
01 Nov · Elite One
2-0
W
25 Oct · CAF Champions League
1-0
W
18 Oct · CAF Champions League
0-2
W
13 Sep · CAF Champions League
0-0
D
06 Sep · CAF Champions League
0-0
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Elite One
Stade Renard 1-1 Colombe
03 May 26 · Elite One
Stade Renard 0-0 Colombe
02 Mar 26 · Elite One
Colombe 0-0 Stade Renard
23 Apr 25 · Elite One
Stade Renard 0-1 Colombe
31 Dec 24 · Elite One
Colombe 1-0 Stade Renard