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Australian Championship

South Melbourne vs Sutherland Sharks

Sat 07 Nov 10:30 0 minutes final 0–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.3%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 80% (n=1985)
• short price 1.19x
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 25/21 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1985, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (87.3%)
@ 07 Nov 09:13 · 1.19x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.8%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
12.7%
calibrated 07 Nov 09:13
scoring fit λ 2.11 / μ 0.81
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
12.7%
7.89x – risky lost
Draw
20.5%
4.87x – risky won
top Home win
66.8%
1.5x – lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — South Melbour… 1W / 1D / 0L · momentum South Melbo… 1.83 ppg vs Sutherland … 0.83 ppg
South Melbourne · last 6
07 Nov · Australian Championsh… 0-0 D
29 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-2 W
23 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-1 D
17 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-1 W
15 Sep · Australia Cup 3-1 W
11 Sep · Victoria NPL 2-1 L
Sutherland Sharks · last 6
07 Nov · Australian Championsh… 0-0 D
31 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-2 L
24 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-2 W
17 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-1 L
02 Sep · New South Wales NPL 1-1 D
30 Aug · New South Wales NPL 1-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Australian Championsh… South Melbourne 0-0 Sutherland Shar…
17 Oct 26 · Australian Championsh… Sutherland Shar… 0-1 South Melbourne
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 75.4% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID VALUE win chance 72.7% VOID