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Australian Championship
Wests APIA vs Adelaide City
Thu 12 Nov 08:30 3 days, 4 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 84.5%
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 75% (n=2256)
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 4/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.0% hit (n=2256, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.5% (n=677)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=383)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.5%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (84.5%)
@ 09 Nov 02:53
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
80.3%
Draw
15.5%
Away win
4.2%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:53
scoring fit λ 2.86 / μ 0.67
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
4.2%
|
23.92x | – | risky |
| Draw |
15.5%
|
6.44x | – | risky |
| top Home win |
80.3%
|
1.25x | – | solid |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Wests APIA 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Wests APIA 2.67 ppg vs Adelaide Ci… 0.83 ppg
Wests APIA · last 6
07 Nov · Australian Championsh…
2-1
W
01 Nov · Australian Championsh…
5-2
W
23 Oct · Australian Championsh…
1-3
W
17 Oct · Australian Championsh…
0-0
D
07 Mar · New South Wales NPL
3-2
W
28 Feb · New South Wales NPL
2-0
W
Adelaide City · last 6
08 Nov · Australian Championsh…
2-1
L
30 Oct · Australian Championsh…
3-2
L
23 Oct · Australian Championsh…
1-3
L
16 Oct · Australian Championsh…
2-2
D
11 Sep · South Australia NPL
2-2
D
05 Sep · South Australia NPL
6-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
23 Oct 26 · Australian Championsh…
Adelaide City 1-3 Wests APIA
Tickets including this match