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Australian Championship

Canberra FC vs Sydney United

Fri 06 Nov 10:30 0 minutes final 2–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 82.1%
book 1.23x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.9%, n=29)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
• short price 1.23x
league track
proven · 75.9% of 29 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 57.9%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 19/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.6% (n=679)
morning 06-12 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=385)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
82.1%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (82.1%)
@ 06 Nov 10:48 · 1.23x
board also had Draw or Away 88.8% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
11.2%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
71.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:48
scoring fit λ 0.77 / μ 2.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
71.0%
1.41x – solid lost
Draw
17.9%
5.6x – risky lost
Home win
11.2%
8.97x – risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Canberra FC 1W / 1D / 0L · momentum Canberra FC 1.33 ppg vs Sydney Unit… 1.5 ppg
Canberra FC · last 6
06 Nov · Australian Championsh… 2-1 W
29 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-2 L
24 Oct · Australian Championsh… 0-2 L
18 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-1 D
22 Aug · Capital Territory NPL 0-0 D
15 Aug · Capital Territory NPL 0-2 W
Sydney United · last 6
06 Nov · Australian Championsh… 2-1 L
31 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-2 W
23 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-1 D
18 Oct · Australian Championsh… 1-1 D
30 Aug · New South Wales NPL 6-0 W
23 Aug · New South Wales NPL 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Australian Championsh… Canberra FC 2-1 Sydney United
18 Oct 26 · Australian Championsh… Sydney United 1-1 Canberra FC
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 79.4% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.2% LOST TREBLE win chance 70.2% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.1% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.1% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.1% VOID