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UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 3–0 · 2 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 86.4%
book 1.18x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
• short price 1.18x
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 29/36 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 80.0% (n=305)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.4%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 4.5 goals
solid (74.7%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.40x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 86.5%
pick won
Either team wins
solid (86.4%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.18x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
60.2%
Draw
13.6%
Away win
26.2%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.90 / μ 1.11
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.2%
|
3.82x | 45.5% n=411 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
13.6%
|
7.36x | 45.5% n=411 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
60.2%
|
1.66x | 45.5% n=411 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — FC Lugano 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum FC Lugano 2.5 ppg vs Kauno Žalgi… 1.33 ppg
FC Lugano · last 6
08 Nov · Super League
5-0
L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
3-0
W
01 Nov · Super League
2-1
W
25 Oct · Super League
2-3
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-5
W
18 Oct · Schweizer Pokal
0-4
W
Kauno Žalgiris · last 6
07 Nov · A Lyga
1-1
D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
3-0
L
31 Oct · A Lyga
1-4
W
26 Oct · A Lyga
0-0
D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-4
L
19 Oct · A Lyga
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
FC Lugano 3-0 Kauno Žalgiris