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UEFA Europa Conference League

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 77.2%
book 1.30x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 78% (n=2297)
• short price 1.30x
• priced 1.30x needs 77% to break even
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 33/26 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2297, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=948)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.2%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (77.2%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.30x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 83.6% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.1%
Draw
22.8%
Away win
26.1%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.64 / μ 1.09
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
26.1%
3.83x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
Draw
22.8%
4.38x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
top Home win
51.1%
1.96x 45.5% n=411 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Universitatea… 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Universitat… 2.33 ppg vs Egnatia Rro… 1.67 ppg
Universitatea Craiova · last 6
07 Nov · Liga I 0-0 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 W
31 Oct · Liga I 2-1 W
28 Oct · Cupa României 1-1 D
24 Oct · Liga I 0-5 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-3 W
Egnatia Rrogozhinë · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 5-1 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 L
01 Nov · Superliga 1-2 W
29 Oct · Superliga 1-0 W
25 Oct · Superliga 2-1 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc… Universitatea C… 2-0 Egnatia Rrogozh…