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UEFA Europa Conference League

Getafe vs Brighton

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · 1 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 67.5%
book 2.44x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 79% (n=1997)
• priced 2.44x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• confidence 68% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 24/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.0% hit (n=1997, 90d ledger)
measured band: 72.8% (n=151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
67.5%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (75.2%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.34x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 85.4% pick won
Home or Draw lean (67.5%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 2.44x
board also had Under 4.5 goals 85.4% pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.7%
Draw
24.8%
Away win
32.5%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.46 / μ 1.24
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
32.5%
3.08x 45.5% n=411 risky won
Draw
24.8%
4.03x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
top Home win
42.7%
2.34x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Getafe 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Getafe 1.0 ppg vs Brighton 1.83 ppg
Getafe · last 6
08 Nov · La Liga 2-0 L
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 0-1 L
01 Nov · La Liga 3-1 W
29 Oct · Copa del Rey 2-3 W
25 Oct · La Liga 4-0 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-5 L
Brighton · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League 2-0 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 0-1 W
31 Oct · Premier League 0-1 W
28 Oct · League Cup 2-2 D
25 Oct · Premier League 2-0 L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc… Getafe 0-1 Brighton