HOME
UEFA Europa Conference League

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty

Thu 05 Nov 19:45 0 minutes final 1–1 · 2 won · 0 lost
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 61.1%
book 1.82x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.82x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• confidence 61% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 21/31 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 65.9% (n=123)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2529)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
61.1%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 4.5 goals solid (77.9%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.33x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 88.5% pick won
Under 3.5 goals lean (61.1%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.82x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 88.5% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
58.1%
Draw
13.0%
Away win
28.8%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.74 / μ 1.08
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
28.8%
3.47x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
Draw
13.0%
7.69x 45.5% n=411 risky won
top Home win
58.2%
1.72x 45.5% n=411 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Atalanta 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Atalanta 1.0 ppg vs Kairat Alma… 1.17 ppg
Atalanta · last 6
08 Nov · Serie A 0-1 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-1 D
02 Nov · Serie A 0-3 L
29 Oct · Serie A 2-2 D
25 Oct · Serie A 4-4 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 L
Kairat Almaty · last 6
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-1 D
31 Oct · Premier League 0-0 D
25 Oct · Premier League 2-2 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-5 L
18 Oct · Premier League 5-0 W
15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc… Atalanta 1-1 Kairat Almaty
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 76.9% LOST VALUE win chance 72.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 79.2% VOID VALUE win chance 76.5% LOST VALUE win chance 76.5% VOID VALUE win chance 75.5% VOID