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UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen vs Saburtalo
Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 92.7%
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 30/35 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.7% (n=57)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
92.7%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (92.7%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.4%
Draw
7.3%
Away win
26.3%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 2.35 / μ 1.31
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
26.3%
|
3.8x | 45.5% n=411 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
7.3%
|
13.77x | 45.5% n=411 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.4%
|
1.5x | 45.5% n=411 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — FC Copenhagen 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum FC Copenhag… 2.33 ppg vs Saburtalo 1.83 ppg
FC Copenhagen · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga
1-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-1
W
02 Nov · Superliga
0-2
W
29 Oct · DBU Pokalen
0-3
W
26 Oct · Superliga
1-1
D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-2
D
Saburtalo · last 6
09 Nov · Erovnuli Liga
1-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-1
L
31 Oct · Erovnuli Liga
0-0
D
26 Oct · Erovnuli Liga
3-2
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-1
D
19 Oct · Erovnuli Liga
0-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
FC Copenhagen 2-1 Saburtalo
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