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UEFA Europa Conference League

Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 3.5 goals · 60.1%
book 1.73x · longshot 1.55x+
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
• priced 1.73x - 1.55x+ legs hit ~53% (60d)
• confidence 60% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 20/32 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 70.6% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 62.1% (n=124)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
60.1%
Under 3.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals lean (60.1%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.73x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 88.0% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.3%
Draw
20.7%
Away win
28.0%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.79 / μ 1.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
28.0%
3.57x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
Draw
20.7%
4.83x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
top Home win
51.3%
1.95x 45.5% n=411 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Monaco 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Monaco 1.33 ppg vs FC Nordsjae… 1.33 ppg
Monaco · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 1-1 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 W
01 Nov · Ligue 1 3-1 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 1-1 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 3-0 W
18 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 L
FC Nordsjaelland · last 6
08 Nov · Superliga 1-6 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 L
01 Nov · Superliga 2-3 L
28 Oct · DBU Pokalen 0-1 W
25 Oct · Superliga 1-1 D
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-2 D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc… Monaco 2-0 FC Nordsjaelland