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UEFA Europa Conference League

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

Thu 05 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 77.5%
book 1.29x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (71.4%, n=56)
• type ledger 78% (n=2297)
• short price 1.29x
• priced 1.29x needs 78% to break even
league track
proven · 71.4% of 56 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.5%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 27/31 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2297, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=948)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.5%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins solid (77.5%)
@ 05 Nov 17:33 · 1.29x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
51.9%
Draw
22.5%
Away win
25.6%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:33
scoring fit λ 1.70 / μ 1.11
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 411 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
25.6%
3.9x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
Draw
22.5%
4.44x 45.5% n=411 risky lost
top Home win
51.9%
1.93x 45.5% n=411 risky won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Panathinaikos 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Panathinaik… 3.0 ppg vs CSKA Sofia 1.33 ppg
Panathinaikos · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1 1-2 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-1 W
01 Nov · Super League 1 2-0 W
28 Oct · Cup 2-1 W
25 Oct · Super League 1 0-1 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-5 W
CSKA Sofia · last 6
07 Nov · First League 0-0 D
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-1 L
24 Oct · First League 2-0 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-2 D
18 Oct · Cup 0-2 W
15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 1-2 L
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · UEFA Europa Conferenc… Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia