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Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United

Thu 05 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Under 3.5 goals · 85.5%
why
• league PROVEN (73.3%, n=30)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
league track
proven · 73.3% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 55.6%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 7/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.6% (n=97)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
85.5%
Under 3.5 goals
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals solid (85.5%)
@ 05 Nov 10:46
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
39.4%
Draw
30.5%
Away win
30.1%
calibrated 05 Nov 10:46
scoring fit λ 1.09 / μ 0.92
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 266 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
30.1%
3.32x 37.2% n=266 risky lost
Draw
30.5%
3.28x 37.2% n=266 risky won
top Home win
39.4%
2.54x 37.2% n=266 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Green Buffalo… 1W / 1D / 1L · momentum Green Buffa… 1.67 ppg vs ZESCO United 1.5 ppg
Green Buffaloes · last 6
05 Nov · Super League 0-0 D
01 Nov · Super League 1-0 W
24 Oct · Super League 1-2 W
18 Oct · Super League 0-0 D
10 Oct · Super League 0-0 D
22 May · Super League 0-0 D
ZESCO United · last 6
05 Nov · Super League 0-0 D
31 Oct · Super League 0-0 D
24 Oct · Super League 5-0 W
17 Oct · Super League 0-0 D
14 Oct · Super League 0-4 W
10 Oct · Super League 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Super League Green Buffaloes 0-0 ZESCO United
01 Apr 26 · Super League ZESCO United 1-0 Green Buffaloes
02 Nov 25 · Super League Green Buffaloes 2-1 ZESCO United
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 72.8% VOID VALUE win chance 73.4% VOID VALUE win chance 73.4% VOID VALUE win chance 73.4% VOID VALUE win chance 73.6% VOID