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Primera División
Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo
Fri 06 Nov 01:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 86.5%
book 1.31x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (82.1%, n=39)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• priced 1.31x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 82.1% of 39 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 29/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (86.5%)
@ 07 Nov 00:47 · 1.31x
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
66.0%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
13.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 00:47
scoring fit λ 2.28 / μ 0.96
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.5%
|
7.43x | 50.8% n=187 | risky | won |
| Draw |
20.5%
|
4.87x | 50.8% n=187 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
66.0%
|
1.51x | 50.8% n=187 | lean | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Independiente… 6W / 1D / 7L
· momentum Independien… 1.33 ppg vs Real Tomaya… 1.17 ppg
Independiente Petrolero · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
0-2
L
02 Nov · Copa de la División P…
3-2
L
31 Oct · Primera División
1-1
D
25 Oct · Primera División
4-2
W
21 Oct · Copa de la División P…
4-0
W
18 Oct · Primera División
0-0
D
Real Tomayapo · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
0-2
W
02 Nov · Primera División
1-2
L
25 Oct · Primera División
1-0
L
17 Oct · Primera División
1-0
W
09 Oct · Primera División
0-0
D
06 Oct · Copa de la División P…
4-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Primera División
Independiente P… 0-2 Real Tomayapo
22 Sep 26 · Copa de la División P…
Independiente P… 5-1 Real Tomayapo
01 Sep 26 · Copa de la División P…
Real Tomayapo 3-0 Independiente P…
13 Jul 26 · Primera División
Real Tomayapo 2-1 Independiente P…
09 Feb 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Independiente P… 5-2 Real Tomayapo