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Primera División
Always Ready vs ABB
Sat 07 Nov 23:15 0 minutes final 3–2 · settledAB
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 1.5 goals · 90.2%
why
• league PROVEN (82.1%, n=39)
• type ledger 69% (n=403)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 82.1% of 39 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.3%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 31/27 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O1.5: 69.5% hit (n=403, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.4% (n=258)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.2%
Over 1.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
81.6%
Draw
16.5%
Away win
2.0%
calibrated 08 Nov 00:50
scoring fit λ 3.18 / μ 0.71
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
2.0%
|
50.6x | 50.8% n=187 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
16.5%
|
6.08x | 50.8% n=187 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
81.6%
|
1.23x | 50.8% n=187 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Always Ready 9W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Always Ready 2.17 ppg vs ABB 0.0 ppg
Always Ready · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
3-2
W
05 Nov · Copa de la División P…
1-4
W
02 Nov · Primera División
1-3
W
25 Oct · Primera División
5-1
W
21 Oct · Copa de la División P…
1-1
D
18 Oct · Primera División
2-1
L
ABB · last 6
07 Nov · Primera División
3-2
L
31 Oct · Primera División
2-3
L
25 Oct · Primera División
4-2
L
16 Oct · Primera División
0-1
L
11 Oct · Primera División
1-0
L
07 Oct · Copa de la División P…
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Primera División
Always Ready 3-2 ABB
19 Sep 26 · Copa de la División P…
Always Ready 1-4 ABB
30 Aug 26 · Copa de la División P…
ABB 0-1 Always Ready
30 May 26 · Primera División
ABB 1-3 Always Ready
04 Feb 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Always Ready 5-2 ABB