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CONCACAF Nations League

Belize vs Sint Maarten

Today 23:00 5 hours, 4 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 92.9%
why
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 88.3% (n=1151)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.9%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
40.5%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
34.3%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.16 / μ 1.03
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · None matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
34.3%
2.91x – risky
Draw
25.2%
3.98x – risky
top Home win
40.5%
2.47x – risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Belize 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Belize 1.0 ppg vs Sint Maarten 0.2 ppg
Belize · last 6
07 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-0 L
04 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-2 L
30 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 L
27 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 W
30 Mar · CONCACAF Series 3-1 L
16 Nov · CONCACAF Series 0-1 W
Sint Maarten · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 4-0 L
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 2-4 L
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-0 L
27 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 L
31 Mar · CONCACAF Series 0-0 D
Head-to-head last 5
27 Sep 26 · CONCACAF Nations Leag… Sint Maarten 0-1 Belize