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CONCACAF Nations League

St. Lucia vs Barbados

Today 23:00 5 hours, 10 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 93.8%
why
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
new league — not enough graded picks to rate
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 4/4 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1957)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.4% hit (n=2540)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.0%
Draw
19.6%
Away win
37.4%
calibrated 11 Nov 17:02
scoring fit λ 1.80 / μ 1.66
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · None matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
37.4%
2.67x – risky
Draw
19.6%
5.11x – risky
top Home win
43.0%
2.33x – risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — St. Lucia 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum St. Lucia 2.25 ppg vs Barbados 1.67 ppg
St. Lucia · last 6
05 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 0-1 W
02 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 3-0 W
29 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 5-2 W
26 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 2-0 L
Barbados · last 6
06 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 1-2 W
03 Oct · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 4-1 W
28 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 2-2 D
26 Sep · CONCACAF Nations Leag… 2-0 W
30 Mar · CONCACAF Series 2-3 L
27 Mar · CONCACAF Series 3-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
26 Sep 26 · CONCACAF Nations Leag… Barbados 2-0 St. Lucia