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Premier League
Ntugasaze vs Entebbe UPPC
Thu 05 Nov 15:00 0 minutes final 1–3 · 0 won · 1 lostEn
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Under 3.5 goals · 75.8%
why
• league PROVEN (72.7%, n=44)
• type ledger 71% (n=343)
league track
proven · 72.7% of 44 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.2%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 9/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U3.5: 71.4% hit (n=343, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.2% (n=62)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.8%
Under 3.5 goals
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
solid (75.8%)
@ 05 Nov 10:41
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
5.0%
Draw
26.1%
Away win
68.9%
calibrated 05 Nov 10:41
scoring fit λ 0.51 / μ 1.99
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
68.9%
|
1.45x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | won |
| Draw |
26.1%
|
3.83x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
5.0%
|
20.1x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Ntugasaze 0W / 0D / 1L
· momentum Ntugasaze 0.67 ppg vs Entebbe UPPC 2.0 ppg
Ntugasaze · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
1-3
L
01 Nov · Premier League
1-1
D
27 Oct · Premier League
5-1
L
13 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
07 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
19 Sep · Premier League
3-0
L
Entebbe UPPC · last 6
05 Nov · Premier League
1-3
W
31 Oct · Premier League
1-1
D
28 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
22 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
15 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
09 Oct · Premier League
3-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Premier League
Ntugasaze 1-3 Entebbe UPPC