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Second Division
Al Rayyan Sc B vs Al Kharaitiyat
Thu 05 Nov 18:30 0 minutes final 1–1 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Either team wins · 66.1%
book 1.15x · short <1.30x
why
• league OK (72.7%, n=11)
• type ledger 75% (n=2264)
• short price 1.15x
• DC-12 needs draw rate <20% (now 25%) or a positive draw-ROI league
league track
ok · 72.7% of 11 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.4%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 5/8 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2264, 90d ledger)
measured band: 69.7% (n=33)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
66.1%
Either team wins
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
lean (66.1%)
@ 05 Nov 17:34 · 1.15x
board also had Under 5.5 goals 86.3%
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
2.0%
Draw
33.9%
Away win
64.1%
calibrated 05 Nov 17:34
scoring fit λ 0.83 / μ 2.44
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtest pending for this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
64.1%
|
1.56x | – | lean | lost |
| Draw |
33.9%
|
2.95x | – | risky | won |
| Home win |
2.0%
|
50.2x | – | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Al Rayyan Sc B 0W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Al Rayyan S… 0.2 ppg vs Al Kharaiti… 1.5 ppg
Al Rayyan Sc B · last 6
05 Nov · Second Division
1-1
D
15 Oct · Second Division
1-4
L
06 Sep · Second Division
0-2
L
31 Aug · Second Division
5-1
L
25 Aug · Second Division
1-0
L
Al Kharaitiyat · last 6
05 Nov · Second Division
1-1
D
29 Oct · Second Division
0-1
W
15 Oct · Second Division
5-2
W
28 Sep · QSL Cup
1-1
D
21 Sep · QSL Cup
1-0
L
08 Sep · Second Division
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
05 Nov 26 · Second Division
Al Rayyan Sc B 1-1 Al Kharaitiyat