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Girabola

Recreativo da Caála vs Académica do Lobito

Sun 08 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 1–2 · 0 won · 1 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 89.7%
why
• league PROVEN (75.8%, n=33)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
league track
proven · 75.8% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.0%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 10/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.7%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (89.7%)
@ 08 Nov 17:26
pick lost
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.4%
Draw
28.3%
Away win
10.3%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:26
scoring fit λ 1.58 / μ 0.53
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 261 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
10.3%
9.72x 49.0% n=261 risky won
Draw
28.3%
3.54x 49.0% n=261 risky lost
top Home win
61.4%
1.63x 49.0% n=261 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Recreativo da… 0W / 0D / 1L · momentum Recreativo … 1.0 ppg vs Académica d… 1.0 ppg
Recreativo da Caála · last 6
08 Nov · Girabola 1-2 L
01 Nov · Girabola 0-0 D
27 Oct · Girabola 1-0 W
17 Oct · Girabola 1-1 D
09 Oct · Girabola 0-0 D
20 Sep · Girabola 1-2 L
Académica do Lobito · last 6
08 Nov · Girabola 1-2 W
31 Oct · Girabola 0-1 L
24 Oct · Girabola 1-1 D
17 Oct · Girabola 0-0 D
11 Oct · Girabola 1-1 D
20 Sep · Girabola 1-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Girabola Recreativo da C… 1-2 Académica do Lo…
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 74.2% LOST VALUE win chance 73.2% VOID VALUE win chance 73.2% VOID VALUE win chance 73.6% VOID VALUE win chance 73.6% VOID VALUE win chance 73.6% VOID